Last June, Delta Air Lines had already announced a need for 1,000 pilots for the summer of 2022. American Airlines recruited 300 new pilots in 2021, and will welcome twice that number in 2022. Southwest Airlines, without giving figures, is also opening its arms, despite its pool of pilots on furlough. United is looking further ahead, targeting 10,000 recruits by 2030[8]. US regional airlines are even offering hiring bonuses for fear of running out of candidates…[9]

On the old continent, Air France is pursuing its fleet renewal policy, notably with the latest Airbus A220, and is reopening routes. In March 2022, the national airline will have recovered 90% of its 2019 capacity[10].

Wizz Air claims that it will recruit 4,300 new pilots by 2030. It already trained an additional 150 to cover last summer’s capacity, which was 100% up on pre-covid bookings. The Hungarian airline has already opened an online application platform[11]. The same is true in Dublin, where Ryanair is looking to recruit 2,000 pilots over the next three years, and 500 per year thereafter. As for EasyJet, it has just announced that it will be hiring of 1,000 pilots over 5 years. In order to reach the widest possible audience, it is launching an advertising campaign to attract all profiles, from the DJ to the multi-tasking mother[13]. The number given is not an overestimate, since Europe will need 5,000 pilots to keep pace with the number of aircraft orders, while European schools do not have the capacity to train more than 1,000 pilots a year!

This is a different tune – or rather warning – to the one heard in 2020. Pessimism has switched round: the worriers now fear a severe shortage of pilots by the end of the year, with perhaps even some aircraft grounded for lack of pilots.

Up to now, we have only provided an outlook for scheduled airline pilots.

Forecasts are just as optimistic, if not more so, for business aviation, which inspires many student pilots, thanks to the sector’s fleet diversity and versatility of missions. This sector has attracted new customers over the past two years who were either deprived of their usual routes or attracted by the ease and time-saving benefits of private aircraft. Business aviation has already returned to its pre-crisis level.

Thus, the General Aviation Manufacturers’ Association, reports that worldwide deliveries increased in all market segments in the first half of 2021 compared to the same period in 2019: +12.3% for piston engine aircraft, +45.4% for turboprops, +8.2% for jets, +33% for turbine helicopters, +31.7% for piston engine helicopters[14]. The downside however, is that this increase in demand for flights has a heavy impact on the supply of spare parts and the need for pilots[15].

For the future, Honeywell forecasts a need for 7,400 new business jets over the next decade, including 6,500 over the next five years[15].

AOPA, the Aircraft Owners’ association, underlines the enthusiasm of Louis Smith, founder of FAPA (Future and Active Pilot Advisors). With more than 600 pilots hired each month in August and September 2021 by the major “bizav” operators, compared to less than 100 hires last January, “this is the 2nd best score in history!”[17]

On this occasion, AOPA reminds us that the business aviation sector accounts for 37% of commercial pilots.